Will Spring Come Early?

Every February 2, nearly 50,000 people flock to western Pennsylvania to get a weather report from the world’s most famous groundhog. If Punxsutawney Phil (above) doesn’t see his shadow, spring will come early. If he does? Hold on to your coat for six more weeks of winter!

Groundhog Day was first celebrated in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1886. It’s rooted in a German tradition where people were on the lookout for hibernating animals like badgers and hedgehogs in the middle of winter. If they saw one, it was a sign spring weather was coming soon. German immigrants brought this tradition to the U.S. Legend has it that the same Punxsutawney Phil that made predictions 140 years ago is still doing so today.

Every February 2, nearly 50,000 people flock to western Pennsylvania. They’re there to get a weather report from the world’s most famous groundhog. His name is Punxsutawney Phil (above). If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, spring will come early. If he does? Hold on to your coat for six more weeks of winter!

Groundhog Day was first celebrated in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1886. It grew out of a German tradition. People would look for hibernating animals like badgers and hedgehogs in winter. If they saw one, it was a sign that spring was coming. German immigrants brought this tradition to the U.S. Legend has it that the same groundhog that made predictions 140 years ago is still doing so today.

But how accurate is Phil, really? According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), he’s correct about a third of the time. Luckily, he’s not the only animal making weather predictions. Several other groundhogs—along with other species—predict weather every year. They include bears, alligators, and even a desert tortoise in Nevada named Mojave Max!

Last year, a NOAA scientist crunched the numbers and compared the average March temperatures for the previous 20 years with each animal’s predictions. The winner was Staten Island Chuck: a whopping 85% of his predictions were correct! Chuck lives at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City and has been predicting the weather since 1981.

Although weather forecasters, like those at NOAA, are the real experts on predicting the weather, it doesn’t stop people from joining in on the fun every February. The event in Punxsutawney starts at dawn, says Jason Grusky. He’s a high school math teacher and member of the club that cares for Phil.

“It doesn’t make sense to stand in the freezing cold in the middle of winter, but it’s really fun and joyful. Good for the heart and spirit,” says Grusky.

But how accurate is Phil? According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), he’s correct about a third of the time. Luckily, he’s not the only animal making weather predictions. Several other animals predict the weather every year. Some of them are also groundhogs. Others include bears, alligators, and a desert tortoise!

Last year, NOAA scientists crunched the numbers. They looked up the average March temperatures for the previous 20 years. Then they compared them with each groundhog’s predictions. The winner was a groundhog named Staten Island Chuck. A whopping 85% of his predictions were correct! Chuck lives at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City. He has been predicting the weather since 1981.

Weather forecasters, like those at NOAA, are the real experts on predicting the weather. But that doesn’t stop people from joining in on the fun every February. The event in Punxsutawney starts at dawn, says Jason Grusky. He’s a high school math teacher who helps care for Phil.

“It doesn’t make sense to stand in the freezing cold in the middle of winter,” says Grusky. “But it’s really fun and joyful. Good for the heart and spirit.”